Chris McCabe is account exec for the northeast region for a national restaurant chain's DMA-based franchisee ad coop - and in that capacity, helps plan broadcast and print advertising campaigns. He doesn't work much in the online space, since the client sees online stuff as a national, and not a DMA-based buy. However, he's also worked on the client side on a national basis, so he has a comprehensive view of what is happening in the consumer advertising space. I caught up with him by cell phone as he was relaxing in an undisclosed location with a lot more warmth that we have up here in Boston right now..part of our conversation follows.

Zulu About this internet thing - how is this affecting ad buys?

McCabe I pay attention from the consumer / user end, which is how I analyze the world on behalf of my client. The advertising accountability issue [ed. - figuring out ROI on ad spend] has been affected substantially by new digital media, all across the board, from Dell [who have started their own captive ad agency] to our restaurant DMA ad coop buyer.

To date the metrics have been consumer awareness and retail sales numbers. Awareness is driven by marketing almost exclusively, but sales are also driven by non-marketing factors. Of course, the granularity of metrics online are much better these days. The challenge is making sense of the data you get -- and the rules are still being written.

Zulu What about social media, then - Facebook and the like.?

McCabe That is the big new game. Facebook has learned the hard way that the content creator/user has more control than ever, and will rebel in face of perceived misuse.

Zulu So is Beacon [Facebook's highly touted, much-maligned, and recently modified, social advertising system] toast, or will [Facebook CEO] Zuckerberg be able to get the Facebookies to opt in?

McCabe Yeah, he will. The demo wants their opinions heard, but it has to be a visible opt-in, and not stealthy surveillance for them to cooperate.

I heard [CEO of DDB] Chuck Brymer recently use the term 'swarm theory.' What he meant by that is that end users and their opinions will come together and form a critical mass (which is where Facebook affects things.) Eventually I think that social media will replace traditional mass media ad platforms - in fact, social media really IS the mass media, but looking back through the other end of the telescope - instead of the product saying, buy me, the consumers say 'here we are, give us what we want, and here's what we think of what you're giving us now.' This is invaluable, free, primary, reliable market research.

Zulu Your national and DMA coop ad spend in 2007 is north of $400M. How does that break now by platform, and how do you see that changing?

McCabe Let's talk national. That is about $250M this year. 80% is TV, 50/50 cable and broadcast (which is up from 30/70 a few years back.) By the way, the writers strike is driving advertisers away from broadcast in 1Q08 and toward digital, but that's a different story.

Of the remaining 20%, it's cats and dogs - radio, NASCAR sponsorship, print, etc - all in single digits. Digital/online is about 4%.

Zulu So how does this change, specifically the digital piece?

McCabe Digital will grow, it will grow exponentially, and it will grow at the expense of TV.

Everybody has long said that the most effective form of advertising is word of mouth. Up until now it has been one mouth to one pair of ears. The new social networking tools create a kind of word-of-mouth megaphone whose reach is exponential - many ears. The reach is giant, and the issue will be credibility - how do you achieve the balance where the channel is not perceived as a marketer attempting to 'game' the dialog.

Zulu So will tricks like 'lonelygirl15' backfire?

McCabe Not necessarily - it depends on the relationship the advertiser can develop with the audience, which is ultimately based on trust. Let me mangle a metaphor here: Now this two-way conversation cat has gotten out of the bag, and it probably won't be stuffed back in. And I, for one, like it this way.