Last July, while participating in a Hollywood Radio and Television Society panel, I was asked if I thought there would be a writers strike. At the time, I was editor-in-chief of the television industry trade magazine Broadcasting & Cable, and I knew that both sides--the Writers Guild of America and the Alliance of Motion Picture & Television Producers--were headed for a standoff. I answered that a walkout seemed all but inevitable.

Now, in the second month of a strike that could last well into the new year, there's no consolation in being right.

I've covered the business side of television for more than 20 years, but I'm just as much of a TV junkie as the listeners who call in to the Howie Carr Show, a Boston drive-time program on WRKO where I'm a weekly commentator.

They regularly call in to ask about their favorite shows, and they get just as much as I do that an ongoing strike means a dwindling supply of fresh

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episodes of "Heroes" and "Grey's Anatomy" and an onslaught of reruns and cheesy reality shows.

As the writers and studios dig in over profit-sharing on digital distribution, one of the core issues at stake, they need to consider the cost of alienating the people who ultimately pay their salaries: the audience.

Sadly, that doesn't look likely. After failing to reach an agreement on its new contract with the studios and networks, the Writers Guild staged a walkout on November 5. The two sides resumed negotiations November 6 over the writers' demand for a greater share of profits from DVD sales and work distributed on new media, and the guild's long-standing desire to unionize writers on reality TV shows and animated films. But talks broke down again on December 7, with each side blaming the other.

Since then, sparring on both sides has become increasingly vitriolic. The writers sent the message this week -- they were ready to cut individual deals with producers and studios willing to break off from the pack. Threats were made that the writers' camp was prepared to bypass the traditional distribution route of studio and network, form worker-run collectives and distribute their programming online.

Networks announced that such shows as Tonight with Jay Leno and The Daily Show with John Stewart would return in January, with or without a deal. Studios and networks alike were saying more layoffs were inevitable and many long-term development deals with producers were likely to be cancelled.

To be sure, it's an uncertain time in the entertainment industry. The digital revolution has upended the traditional business model for television, just as it has for film and music. Both sides are naturally wary of giving up any of their already diminishing power.

The networks and studios believe the WGA's attempt to extend its jurisdiction would put them too much at the guild's mercy. And they've said that a demand to allow guild members to honor other guilds' picket lines without fear of reprisal is a non-starter. Neither side can agree on what is a fair cut from profits from programming distributed on the Internet and mobile devices.

Important as these issues may be to the future of the business, they just
don't resonate with viewers. People don't want to hear about residuals formulas; they only care that Jack Bauer won't be back in January to save
the world -again- from a nuclear holocaust on 24. And while public sentiment may have gone initially with the scrappy writers taking on the greedy moguls, you can bet folks will chuck that storyline when the pipeline of new shows runs dry.

The strike has already done damage to the industry. Hundreds of so-called
below-the-line employees on shows like Law & Order have been laid off. And the networks and studios have made it clear that they intend to use the strike as cover to keep staffing and other costs trimmed even when there's a settlement.

But the real and lasting damage of a protracted strike may be a mass tune-out across the nation's 111 million TV households when viewers start
turning to other entertainment options. The Daily Show With Jon Stewart sans his crack writing staff? Guess I'll keep playing with my Nintendo Wii. Another rerun of CSI? Maybe I'll look for Led Zeppelin videos on YouTube or catch up with The Wire on NetFlix.

In such a lucrative business, isn't there enough money to go around? Are the issues really so insurmountable that all concerned can't find a way to compromise and cut a deal?

I hope the writers, the studios and networks, come to their senses soon
before audiences write them all off.