In New Hampshire The Press Was The Biggest Loser
Every pundit and pollster had been telling us since Barack Obama's stunning win in Iowa that Hillary Clinton was all but washed up. Then last night, Hillary bested Obama in New Hampshire and the journos and the pollsters they so dearly love were asking each other: "What the hell happened?"
Analysts posited a number of theories, but ultimately concluded that without thorough investigation nobody could say why the polls got it right about John McCain's victory on the Republican side and so wrong with their predictions that Obama would beat Clinton by as much as 10 percent.
One reason put forth that put visions of dangling chads in my head was posted on the ABC News website by Stanford University Professor Jon A. Krosnick. He noted that Clinton's favorable placement at the top of the New Hampshire primary ballot and Obama's near the bottom could have meant as much as a 3 percent differential. The good professor would have us believe that if the ballot placement it would have been Barack doing the Snoopy Dance last night instead of Hillary.
Makes about as much sense as anything else I've heard since last night.
Meanwhile, in the harsh light of morning, a couple of things I'm taking away from yesterday's primary. First, from here on out I'll listen to the pundocracy with a jaundiced eye and never underestimate the Clintons' Lazarus-like ability to return from the dead. Furthermore, when there's an emerging candidate with Obama's rock star charisma, I'll remember that the tendency of my media brethren towards premature coronation may be more wishful thinking than anything else.
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